Drivers are receiving mixed messages about gas prices at the pump. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, shared on Yahoo Finance’s Morning Brief that he expects the national average for gas prices to drop below $3 per gallon. He attributes this to a surplus of oil reported by the International Energy Association and OPEC lowering its demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
Molly Hart, spokesperson for AAA, offered insights into gas prices and the factors that influence them.
“There are several things that cause the gas price to fluctuate,” Hart explained. “Number one, the price goes up in the summer because people are taking their summer vacations. In the fall, it goes down a little bit, and then again in the winter, because not as many people are driving. And then it goes up again in the spring. Right now, gas prices are pretty stable here in Illinois, and we don’t see that dramatic of a drop in prices right now. The gas price today here in Illinois is $3.46 yesterday it was $3.48 so we did drop two cents, but going below three, we’re not sure about that.” Hart noted that gas cost $3.61 per gallon at this time last year.
Hart also highlighted other factors affecting gas prices. “Right now, hurricanes are a major topic. Refinery outages, even those outside Illinois, can create a ripple effect that impacts prices here. International events, such as wars or political tensions, like those between Israel and Iran, also play a role. Additionally, we’re transitioning to the winter blend of gasoline, which is cheaper to produce, potentially lowering prices slightly. (Click here to learn more about the differences between summer and winter blends.) That said, with travel season around the corner, prices could rise again. Here in Illinois, today’s price is $3.46, and we don’t anticipate a significant dip below $3—prices are steady for now.”
When asked about future price trends, Hart stressed the unpredictability of gas prices. “I wish I had a crystal ball to predict where prices will be in a month, six months, or a year. Numerous factors influence what we pay at the pump. For instance, a severe winter storm could disrupt a refinery and drive prices up. On the other hand, as we move into the fall and winter, when demand decreases, prices could fall. Ultimately, it all comes down to supply and demand.”
Hurricane Impact and Seasonal Trends
Gas prices, which briefly rose following Hurricanes Helen and Milton, have since resumed their seasonal decline. Oil demand increased slightly last week, with crude oil trading in the low $70-per-barrel range. With oil prices remaining relatively low, AAA predicts that pump prices could continue to decrease, potentially bringing the national average to $3 per gallon or less.